A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
