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A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from inside knowledge of American actions.

Changing Odds in Forecasts

Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the end of January rose in the hours before Donald Trump stated on Saturday that Maduro had been apprehended.

A single trader, which registered on the site recently and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $436K from a starting bet of $32,537.

The identity is unknown. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification.

Market Signals Before News Break

Trading information shows that users estimated the likelihood of a political change at just 6.5% in the midday period of the Friday before the event.

However the market's assessment had jumped to 11% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the first hours of the next day, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the social media post was made.

"This particular bet has all the characteristics of a bet based on non-public details," said an industry expert.

Several of other traders also earned large payouts from similar wagers.

Political Attention Intensifies

Elected officials are starting to take note.

A new rule presented on the start of the week aims to prohibit federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market.

The Prediction Market Landscape

Prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to predict everything from sports to current affairs.

Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency.

Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting arena.

A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."